Crypto Crystal Ball 2025: How Hard Will Trump Fight for Bitcoin and Crypto?

Another year is done, and crypto is somehow at a defining crossroads—again. After surviving an all-out regulatory crusade in the United States and weathering the final dregs of the last bear market, the digital assets industry appears ascendent once more. By all accounts, 2025 looks poised to be crypto’s greatest year yet. 

But how, exactly, the industry opts to navigate this moment of opportunity is far from set in stone. Regulatory moves, technical updates, and market trends could all still break a thousand different ways. 

Fret not, dear reader. Decrypt is here to predict the unpredictable. Here are some key questions that experts say are likely to define the coming year—and what their answers could mean for you.

First up: How much political capital will Donald Trump be willing to spend on crypto?

In November, the president-elect’s victory sent crypto markets soaring. It seems pretty clear that the days of the U.S. government doggedly attacking the industry’s key players are through—and that alone is a huge development.

But will the Trump Administration be willing to actively pursue policies that industry experts say are crucial to ensuring crypto’s long-term success?

“The end of the hostility is going to in and of itself be a boon,” Kristin Smith, the CEO of the Blockchain Association, a prominent crypto lobbying group, told Decrypt. “But we need more than that.”

Even though Trump made countless promises about the industry on the campaign trail, such commitments to particular constituencies routinely get lost in the shuffle once a president takes office and gets inundated by competing concerns—all of which will be urgent.

“There’s going to be a lot of priorities across the Trump Administration,” Smith said. “If we don’t have somebody there who’s able to execute on those, that’s going to be a problem.”

One positive indicator to Smith that digital assets policy could meaningfully advance in 2025 is the fact that, in an historic first, the Trump White House has appointed a dedicated AI and crypto czar. Venture capitalist David Sacks accepted the position in early December.

A White House crypto advisor will “ensure that things get done” by coordinating the Administration’s digital assets vision across the White House, executive agencies, and Congress, Smith said.

That sort of focus could have a massive and immediate impact on crypto’s strength, reach, and influence. 

Take the repeal of SAB 121, a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rule that discourages American banks from custodying crypto assets. In May, bipartisan majorities in both chambers of Congress voted to nullify the rule, but President Joe Biden shortly thereafter vetoed the effort.

If Congress was merely urged to pass the same bill again, and Trump signed it into law, that single move could usher in a whole new chapter for crypto in the United States, Smith maintained. 

“It really opens up a whole new market,” she said.

Even though Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are currently trading on Wall Street, an abundance of yellow tape and crypto-related anxieties have kept the majority of American investors and businesses on the sidelines. 

Allowing mainstream banks to hold crypto themselves—and passing a basic market structure bill that formally legalizes the industry—would unlock untold amounts of still queasy TradFi capital for the digital assets industry, Smith said. Such basic steps would give “comfort to a broader set of investors and market participants that crypto is a safe place to be, that they can come and invest here, and that developers can build new businesses here.”

The difference between TradFi dipping its toes into crypto, and diving in headfirst, would be seismic. The industry might get some taste of that difference in 2025.

Edited by Andrew Hayward